What is a cancer prognosis?

When you are diagnosed with cancer, you might have questions. You may want to know if it is possible to cure the cancer or what is likely to happen in the future. This is called a prognosis.

A prognosis can tell you:

• how likely the cancer is to be cured
• what the chances are of a full recovery
• how long you are likely to live if the cancer cannot be cured.

Your prognosis is based on different factors:

• the type of cancer you have and where it is in the body
• the stage of the cancer – the size of the cancer and whether it has spread
• the grade of the cancer – how quickly the cancer may grow
• your age and general health
• how the treatment might affect you physically
• how the cancer responds to treatment.

Doctors may give you a general idea of what the prognosis is. For example, statistics may show that your cancer is likely to respond well to treatment. In this situation, your cancer doctor may tell you that you have a good outlook or prognosis. Or if the cancer is harder to control, they may tell you that you have a poor outlook or prognosis.

Some people may want to know exactly how long they have to live, so that they can make plans. But it can be difficult for your cancer doctor to give an exact prognosis. Usually, they will only be able to give a range of time. For example this might be a few months to a year. This is still only an estimate based on all the facts, and could be shorter or longer.

Your cancer doctor may use survival statistics to give more information about your prognosis. Many research studies talk about 5 year or 10 year survival. This is because they look at the number of people alive 5 or 10 years after a cancer diagnosis. Some people will live much longer than this.

Statistics can be complex and difficult to understand. It may be helpful to have a family member or friend with you when you talk to the cancer doctor. Or you could write the statistics down and look at them later with someone you trust.

If you find the statistics complex, you can ask your cancer doctor to make the information easier to understand. You might want to use percentages, charts or diagrams instead.

You may also see different terms if you are looking for information on the internet or in research journals:

Cancer-specific survival

This is the percentage of people with a certain type and stage of cancer who have not died from their cancer during a period of time after diagnosis. 5 years is the time period most often used. But it could be any number of years. This does not include deaths from other conditions, such as heart attacks or strokes.

Overall survival

This is the percentage of people with a certain type and stage of cancer who have not died from any cause during a period of time after diagnosis.

Disease-free survival

This is the percentage of people who have no signs of their cancer during a period of time after treatment. It is sometimes called recurrence-free survival.

Progression-free survival

This is the percentage of people with cancer that is stable and has not got worse over a period of time.

Not everyone wants to know what will happen. Tell your cancer doctor and specialist nurse how much you want to know about your prognosis. It will not affect the treatment or care you have. It is also okay to change your mind and ask for more information later.