For immediate release, 11th May 2022
- New analysis from Macmillan Cancer Support reveals that without urgent action the backlog in cancer treatment in England is set to last until September 2027
- The charity says the delay — at least four years longer than Macmillan’s previous predictions — is due to ongoing disruption from Covid-19 and existing NHS pressures
Leading cancer charity, Macmillan Cancer Support, is today sounding the alarm once again on England’s cancer crisis. New analysis, revealed for the first time this morning on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, has unearthed that the backlog in cancer treatment now won’t be cleared until September 2027 if the NHS continues to work at its current rate[i].
The new figure is at least four years longer than Macmillan’s other recent predictions, which assumed that the NHS would be able to treat 10% more people for cancer each month than it did before the pandemic, and continue to do so. However, the latest data shows this assumption is proving ambitious, with thousands of patients stuck in a backlogged system, suffering from disruption and delays to cancer diagnosis and treatment, and hardworking NHS staff already left exhausted and burnt out.[EB1]
Macmillan is concerned these delays and disruption are only adding to existing pressures on the NHS — namely, too few cancer professionals to care for patients — which are having an adverse impact on people living with cancer. These damaging repercussions include people being unsure about the side-effects of their treatment, unsure about how to take their medication, and even ending up in A&E.
At present, official data shows 32,000 fewer people have started treatment for cancer than expected in England since the pandemic started[ii]. Further analysis of other new government data shows that the number of people being diagnosed with cancer in England has stalled in recent months, from a peak in May 2021, when it should be going up[iii].
One of the people affected by the delays is Liane, a 37-year-old mother of three (children aged 3, 7 and 10) with incurable bowel cancer, who tragically only has six months to live.
Liane said: “I wasn’t considered a likely candidate for cancer at 36 and walked out of my GP surgery more than once being told I had haemorrhoids. I didn’t push for more investigations. If I’d been given a blood test, I might have got into the system sooner.”
“What I’ve been through can’t happen to anyone else. Catching cancer early is so important. I would implore anybody experiencing signs and symptoms to be persistent and really push for answers if they’re experiencing any cancer symptoms.”
In this morning’s interview, Lynda Thomas CBE, Chief Executive Officer at Macmillan Cancer Support, said: “New research shows the backlog is worse than we originally predicted and the reason for that is we are simply not clearing it fast enough. To see that we won’t be through it now until 2027 is completely unacceptable.
“The problems were already there prior to the pandemic, but the pandemic has made it worse. Chronic staff shortages at every stage of the cancer pathway has led to the fact that the target for 75% of people to be seen and start treatment within 62 days of a diagnosis has never, ever been met and this has been made worse.
“There is a new cancer plan being published in the next couple of months and we are saying to the Secretary of State that we need to look at all of this — every aspect of this — and there needs to be some radical transformation. There are some fantastic new things on the horizon for cancer but we must get the basics right, such as how people get treated and how people get diagnosed. There is a lot to be done.
“The NHS has been under tremendous pressure for the last couple of years. People have worked tirelessly. This is not about anybody working in the system. Everybody is doing their absolute best, but there hasn’t been enough investment in getting people into training places. It’s doctors, nurses, support workers — it’s in every aspect of the NHS.”
Macmillan is calling for the Government to act on this warning in its upcoming 10-Year Cancer Plan. To do this, it must determine the needs of people living with cancer, right now & in the future, and ensure there is enough funding and the plans in place for the NHS cancer professionals that will be needed.
The new figure is at least four years longer than Macmillan’s other recent predictions, which assumed that the NHS would be able to treat 10% more people for cancer each month than it did before the pandemic, and continue to do so. However, the latest data shows this assumption is proving ambitious, with thousands of patients stuck in a backlogged system, suffering from disruption and delays to cancer diagnosis and treatment, and hardworking NHS staff already left exhausted and burnt out.[EB1]
Macmillan is concerned these delays and disruption are only adding to existing pressures on the NHS — namely, too few cancer professionals to care for patients — which are having an adverse impact on people living with cancer. These damaging repercussions include people being unsure about the side-effects of their treatment, unsure about how to take their medication, and even ending up in A&E.
At present, official data shows 32,000 fewer people have started treatment for cancer than expected in England since the pandemic started[ii]. Further analysis of other new government data shows that the number of people being diagnosed with cancer in England has stalled in recent months, from a peak in May 2021, when it should be going up[iii].
One of the people affected by the delays is Liane, a 37-year-old mother of three (children aged 3, 7 and 10) with incurable bowel cancer, who tragically only has six months to live.
Liane said: “I wasn’t considered a likely candidate for cancer at 36 and walked out of my GP surgery more than once being told I had haemorrhoids. I didn’t push for more investigations. If I’d been given a blood test, I might have got into the system sooner.”
“What I’ve been through can’t happen to anyone else. Catching cancer early is so important. I would implore anybody experiencing signs and symptoms to be persistent and really push for answers if they’re experiencing any cancer symptoms.”
In this morning’s interview, Lynda Thomas CBE, Chief Executive Officer at Macmillan Cancer Support, said: “New research shows the backlog is worse than we originally predicted and the reason for that is we are simply not clearing it fast enough. To see that we won’t be through it now until 2027 is completely unacceptable.
“The problems were already there prior to the pandemic, but the pandemic has made it worse. Chronic staff shortages at every stage of the cancer pathway has led to the fact that the target for 75% of people to be seen and start treatment within 62 days of a diagnosis has never, ever been met and this has been made worse.
“There is a new cancer plan being published in the next couple of months and we are saying to the Secretary of State that we need to look at all of this — every aspect of this — and there needs to be some radical transformation. There are some fantastic new things on the horizon for cancer but we must get the basics right, such as how people get treated and how people get diagnosed. There is a lot to be done.
“The NHS has been under tremendous pressure for the last couple of years. People have worked tirelessly. This is not about anybody working in the system. Everybody is doing their absolute best, but there hasn’t been enough investment in getting people into training places. It’s doctors, nurses, support workers — it’s in every aspect of the NHS.”
Macmillan is calling for the Government to act on this warning in its upcoming 10-Year Cancer Plan. To do this, it must determine the needs of people living with cancer, right now & in the future, and ensure there is enough funding and the plans in place for the NHS cancer professionals that will be needed.
Analysis
- The latest official data shows the number of people who have started cancer treatment in England since the start of the pandemic is still more than 32,000 lower than expected[iv]
- If the number of people starting treatment does not increase beyond current levels, it will take the NHS until September 2027 to clear this backlog (see graph)[v]
- Further analysis of new government data shows that the number of people being diagnosed with cancer in England has stalled in recent months from a peak in May 2021, at a time when we desperately need to identify the tens of thousands of people who are currently ‘missing’ a cancer diagnosis because of the ongoing disruption from Covid-19, so they can start treatment[vi]
- In May 2021, the number of people diagnosed with cancer in England was 6% higher than in the same month in 2019, but this progress has not been maintained, with the figures for November 2021 only marginally higher than before the pandemic, and the trend currently uncertain for December 2021 and January 2022[vii]
- Delays in diagnosing people and starting their treatment could have a serious impact on their long-term health and wellbeing, as well as survival. There are already signs that people with cancer are now more likely to be diagnosed at a later stage than they were before the pandemic[viii]
Additional quote from Lynda Thomas
Lynda Thomas CBE, Chief Executive Officer of Macmillan Cancer Support, says:
“It is deeply troubling to see thousands of people still facing unacceptably long waits for a cancer diagnosis and treatment. We are hearing every day from people who are experiencing huge amounts of anxiety and distress that any delays could impact their health and chances of recovery.
“Everyone deserves high quality care that addresses all of their needs. But right now, the NHS does not have enough cancer professionals to provide this support and people living with cancer are facing detrimental effects to their physical health and overall wellbeing as a result.
“The upcoming 10-Year Cancer Plan must address this. Otherwise, despite the very best efforts of hardworking NHS professionals, people living with cancer risk being left without vital care.”
For further information, please contact:
Telephone: 020 7840 7821 Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm.
Out of hours mobile: 07801 307 068.
Email: media@macmillan.org.uk.
References
[i] Macmillan Cancer Support analysis of NHS England’s latest cancer waiting times data shows that if first definitive cancer treatments (FDTs) continue at the rate they have occurred for the previous three months (December 2021-February 2022; 101.8% of expected levels) it will take until September 2027 to clear the treatment backlog. Please note this analysis is based on month-by-month comparisons that have been fully adjusted for working days, so the number of ‘missing’ first treatments does not precisely match the figure from ref ii. Also, while the 101.8% figure is based on the average for the winter months of December to February, the % actually decreases slightly if we expand this to include the previous six months (September 2021-February 2022; 101.2% of expected levels)
[ii] NHS England. Cancer waiting times. Cancer Waiting Times — National Time Series Oct 2009 — February 2022 with Revisions. The total figure for March 2020 to February 2022 is 591,605. Using the monthly average for 2019 of 26,010 we would therefore expect the figure for the 24-month period from March 2020 to February 2022 to be at least 624,236. Please note this figure is not adjusted for working days
[iii] England Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset (NCRAS). Accessed May 2022. According to this data, the total number of people diagnosed with cancer in England increased between February 2021 and May 2021, and then fell each month between May 2021 and November 2021 with the exception of a slight increase in October 2021. The number of people diagnosed in November 2021 is just 1.4% higher than in November 2019
[iv] As per ref ii
[v] As per ref i
[vi] As per ref iii
[vii] As per ref iii
[viii] England Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset (NCRAS). In May 2022, this data showed that the number of women diagnosed with advanced breast cancer has soared by up to half as much again compared with pre-Covid. Between November 2020 and July 2021, the number of women diagnosed with stage 4 breast cancer was consistently higher than expected, peaking at 150% of the pre-pandemic average in April 2021, while the number of women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer remained consistently lower than before Covid for 11 months. In addition, new official data for Scotland shows that in 2020, there was a bigger drop in the number of people being diagnosed at an early stage than at a later stage for several key cancer types. Public Health Scotland. Cancer Incidence in Scotland — to December 2020. Accessed April 2022
[EB1]Suggest also adding pressure on exhausted staff here as part of the context [EB1]
[ii] NHS England. Cancer waiting times. Cancer Waiting Times — National Time Series Oct 2009 — February 2022 with Revisions. The total figure for March 2020 to February 2022 is 591,605. Using the monthly average for 2019 of 26,010 we would therefore expect the figure for the 24-month period from March 2020 to February 2022 to be at least 624,236. Please note this figure is not adjusted for working days
[iii] England Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset (NCRAS). Accessed May 2022. According to this data, the total number of people diagnosed with cancer in England increased between February 2021 and May 2021, and then fell each month between May 2021 and November 2021 with the exception of a slight increase in October 2021. The number of people diagnosed in November 2021 is just 1.4% higher than in November 2019
[iv] As per ref ii
[v] As per ref i
[vi] As per ref iii
[vii] As per ref iii
[viii] England Rapid Cancer Registration Dataset (NCRAS). In May 2022, this data showed that the number of women diagnosed with advanced breast cancer has soared by up to half as much again compared with pre-Covid. Between November 2020 and July 2021, the number of women diagnosed with stage 4 breast cancer was consistently higher than expected, peaking at 150% of the pre-pandemic average in April 2021, while the number of women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer remained consistently lower than before Covid for 11 months. In addition, new official data for Scotland shows that in 2020, there was a bigger drop in the number of people being diagnosed at an early stage than at a later stage for several key cancer types. Public Health Scotland. Cancer Incidence in Scotland — to December 2020. Accessed April 2022
[EB1]Suggest also adding pressure on exhausted staff here as part of the context [EB1]